Schools were told the score of the Expected Standard for the latest Phonics Screening Check (PSC) on 22 June, having submitted results by 19 June. They also receive their results for the Multiplication Tables Check (MTC) on the same day.
Schools know how many children have reached the Expected Standard for the PSC in Year 1 (and those who have reached it in Year 2) once they have the score for the Expected Standard. The national PSC results are not usually released until October, however.
When the school MTC results are returned to them, schools can see how many of their pupils have scored 25. This is the key metric for this assessment. Schools can also see their average MTC score. The national MTC results are not usually available to schools until November.
This year there was somewhat of a shock as the PSC Expected Standard changed for the first time in its history. After having been 32 out of 40 since its introduction, the Expected Standard for 2025-26 dropped to 31 out of 40.
This was unexpected, as it has been well known that surprisingly few children scored 31 for the period when the Expected Standard was 32, as James Pembroke wrote about some time ago here.
At Insight, we estimate the national results for the PSC. Since 2022, our estimated results are within 0.1 percentage points on average.
For 2025-26, we estimate that 82.10% of children in Year 1 have reached the Expected Standard for the PSC. This is a rise of 2.1 percentage points, which is a noticable change compared to the last three years.
Data marked with an asterisk (*) are Insight estimates
Our estimate is that including pupils scoring 31 adds just 0.4 percentage points to the Year 1 total. We also estimate that, had the ES been 33 marks, the total would have been 3.2 percentage points lower. It will be interesting to hear from the DfE as to why the Expected Standard has changed from 32 to 31 this year.
Those who do not reach the Expected Standard are assessed again in Year 2 alongside the Year 1s. For 2025-26, we estimate that 92.40% of children by Year 2 have reached the Expected Standard for the PSC. This is a rise of 3.7 percentage points, whereas the last three years had seen the Year 2 total stablise at 89%.
For the MTC, Insight estimates that 46.4% of pupils scored 25 in 2025-26. This is an increase of 9.4 percentage points on 2024-25, almost twice as big a jump since the previous big jump in results in 2023-24, when the increase was 5.0 percentage points.
Data marked with an asterisk (*) are Insight estimates
We estimate that the national mean score on the MTC in 2025-26 is 21.9. This is an increase of 0.9 marks on 2024-25, more than twice the previous consistent increase of 0.4 marks year on year.
Years marked with an asterisk (*) are Insight estimates
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